Environmental Economics

Cascaded Risk and Compounded Uncertainty

The purpose of this paper was to clarify important aspects concerning the way uncertainty is used in quantitative risk estimation and discuss the ways that risk assessment should and should not be used. First the paper introduces the notion of compounded uncertainty in cascaded risk estimation, and common misconceptions of this concept, such as the paradox of detail, are explained. The true nature of uncertainty in the risk estimation process is illuminated and erroneous conceptions of the statistical premises are dismissed. Finally, the implications for policy makers of a correct understanding of the role of uncertainty in risk analysis are discussed.

  • Keywords

    Subject:
    1. Benefits Analysis
    1. Benefits Analysis - Quantification without Monetization
    Environmental Media:
    f. Multimedia
    Authors:
    Lichtenberg, Erik
    Spear, Robert C.
    Zilberman, David
    Bogen, Kenneth T.
    EPA Project Officer/ Manager:
    Geographic Area:
    Study Purpose:
    Methodology Development & Evaluation
    Inventory Record #: EE-0099
  • Participating Organizations

    Research Organization:

    Western Consortium for the Health Professions, Inc.Address: 703 Market Street Ste. 535
    City: San Francisco State: CA ZIP: 94103
    Phone: Fax:
    E-mail:
  • Report Details
    Type:
    Final
    Date:
    Number of Pages:
    57
    Comment:
  • How to Obtain Report

    Download report now, Order a copy of report

    Use link(s) to download or view the report

    Date Linked: 08/25/2017