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Lake Erie Eutrophication Indicators - Ensemble Modeling Approach

EPA Designated Federal Officer (DFO):Thomas Carpenter
202-564-4885
carpenter.thomas@epa.gov

Responsible Committee/Panel:Ad Hoc Augmented Standing Committee Being Formed

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BACKGROUND.

The EPA is co-leading a workgroup, focused on Lake Erie, to develop preliminary binational phosphorous objectives, loading targets and allocations for nearshore and offshore waters. The goal is to achieve the Lake Ecosystem Objectives for Lake Erie, pursuant to the Nutrients Annex (Annex 4) of the 2012 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) by February 2016.

The workgroup plans to use an ensemble of Lake Erie ecosystem models to compute appropriate load-response relationships for eutrophication response indicators of concern. EPA Region 5 requested early advice from the SAB on the appropriateness of modeling approaches to meet the GLWQA Lake Ecosystem Objectives B. Region 5 has also requested a subsequent SAB review of the modeled phosphorus targets and loads. At that stage, the Region will be seeking advice on whether the modeled results reflect the best available information on the phosphorous sources and trophic status of Lake Erie.


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