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On Reducing Errors in Air Pollution Epidemiology

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The paper reviews several ways in which communications among researchers and policy makers in air pollution epidemiology might be improved. Improved communication basically requires greater research use of biomedically and economically derived parameter restrictions in design matrices and estimator selection, and a full reporting of the entire range of results that have been obtained. The authors suspect that the conclusions reported in most published air pollution epidemiology studies reflect highly selective reporting of a specification search converging toward regions of the parameter space consistent with the investigator's prior beliefs rather than being consistent with the full range of the set of alternative specifications that might be applied to the sample evidence. Air pollution fails, the authors find, to have a statistically significant effect on the incidences of pneumonia, asthma, hay fever, or influenza among the youths and children in their sample.


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