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All Past Seminars | Climate Economics | Climate Science | Environmental EconomicsClimate Economics
Fixing a Critical Climate Accounting Error
November 18, 2009, 11:00 am to 12:30 pm
Timothy D. Searchinger (Princeton University)
Abstract: The Kyoto Protocol and European and proposed U.S. climate legislation contains a fixable but far-reaching accounting flaw that could lead to widespread deforestation. By exempting all emissions from the consumption of bioenergy while also not limiting emissions from land use, these measures effectively treat all bioenergy use as carbon neutral regardless of the source. Actual reductions by bioenergy depend on the source, and reductions depend on whether the biomass consists of "additional carbon," meaning carbon that would not otherwise be stored in plants or soils. The solution is to count carbon dioxide emissions from bioenergy consumption and to credit bioenergy only to the extent it results from additional carbon.
The RCP Scenarios for the IPCC AR4 (and beyond): 250 years of pollutant and GHG emissions
September 16, 2009, 10;30 am to noon
Steven J. Smith (Joint Global Change Research Institute; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland)
Abstract: Consistent long-term scenarios for emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants, land-use, socio-econmic variables, and energy consumption are needed for coordinated analysis of future climate change, impacts, mitigation, and adaptation. To meet this need, the integrated assessment, earth-system modeling, and emission inventory development communities have organized to implement a new process for scenario development and application. This is a departure from past practice, whereby the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has organized scenario construction exercises, the most recent being the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The initial phase of this new community-lead process is nearing completion: the release of a set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to be used for model inter-comparison experiments leading to the IPCC AR5. The RCP scenarios are intended to represent the full range of potential future radiative forcing pathways ranging from a no-climate policy high forcing scenario (8.5 W/m^2 total anthropogenic forcing in 2100) to a "peak and decline" scenario (with 2.6 W/m^2 forcing in 2100). The RCP scenarios were developed using integrated assessment models that combine economics, technology, and physical processes. The scenarios include a full suite of greenhouse gas concentrations, spatially explicit emissions for pollutant gases and aerosols, and spatially explicit land-use and land-use change information. The RCP scenarios, the development process, and the next phases of scenario research will be discussed.
Forestry & Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Policy Design and Coordination Insights from Recent Modeling
Wednesday, July 15, 2009 (10:30 am to noon)
Steven Rose (EPRI)
Abstract: Changes in land related activities could have a potentially large greenhouse gas mitigation role in domestic offset programs and in climate stabilization. Recent modeling has estimated that land-based mitigation could cost-effectively contribute to achieving near- and long-term mitigation objectives. However, most modeling assumes a comprehensive, immediate, and global land-use abatement policy. Thus, a mitigation program is assumed to exist that offers credit for all mitigation activities, the program is active immediately (e.g., 2010 or 2012), and the program is implemented globally. This set of assumptions has been assumed regardless of the climate policy being considered in the energy, transportation, and commercial sectors domestically and abroad. Yet, given the recognized challenges associated with implementing agriculture and forestry abatement programs (domestically or internationally), it is reasonable to assume that programs will evolve over time.
There are a variety of forestry and agricultural activities that have the technical potential to mitigate GHG emissions. However, there are differences across activities in terms of cost, the quantity of emissions that can be mitigated, and the implementation challenges that must be overcome to create well-defined and climate beneficial assets. Because of these differences, some options will be more tractable than others; and, therefore more attractive to policy-makers, regulators, and markets. For instance, in forestry, carbon sequestered by new forests grown on previous unforested land (i.e., afforestation) is readily quantifiable with current knowledge and capabilities, as is the capture of methane by covering livestock manure lagoons. In addition to the issue of which forestry and agricultural activities to credit, there is the issue of timing and coordination in the crediting of activities—across regions and within regions. What are the implications of delaying programs, changes in coverage over time, and programs implemented at different times across regions?
This seminar presents insights from various new analyses that explore the implications of forestry and agriculture mitigation programs that are not comprehensive, immediate, and global. In general, the analyses show that less than comprehensive policies will have leakage, but interactions between activities, countries, and over time are even more complex. For instance, domestic and global forestry & agriculture activities are not independent (i.e., they cannot be stacked, or unstacked). The abatement potential for one activity depends on the GHG incentives for other activities. Furthermore, domestic mitigation potential is a function of international climate policy. Finally, we find that commitment to a comprehensive future global forest carbon policy could moderate leakage and offer significant mitigation potential with the long-run protection and expansion of global forests.
The Effects of Increased U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard
May 27, 2009 (1 to 2:30 pm)
Antonio M. Bento (Cornell University)
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of the renewable fuels standard, employing an econometrically based multi-market simulation model to evaluate the policy’s efficiency impacts. We investigate the impacts of increased U.S. biofuels mandates on overall blended fuel consumption, relating these impacts to changes in fuel mix (regular gasoline and ethanol), changes in fleet composition (shifts to higher mileage automobiles) and vehicle miles traveled (VMT). The presenter will also examine the impacts of increased U.S. biofuels mandates on agricultural production, relating these effects to changes in crop acreage, rotation practices, tillage systems and land allocated to the conservation reserve program (CRP). Finally, he will evaluate the economy-wide costs of higher biofuels mandates, and explore how pre-existing distortions caused by the ethanol volumetric tax credit and the gasoline tax affect these costs.
What's Wrong with Infinity -- A Note on Weitzman's Dismal Theorem
April 1, 2009 (10:30 am to 12:00 noon), Room 4144 EPA West, 1301 Constitution Ave., NW, Washington, DC
Andreas Lange (University of Maryland)
Abstract: Dr. Lange will discuss the meaning of Weitzman's (2008) dismal theorem, and demonstrate that his indicator of marginal expected rate of substitution is of limited relevance for cost-benefit analysis: cost-benefit analysis under uncertainty must jointly consider marginal willingness and the options/technologies of transferring income. Dr. Lange's approach shows that an infinite expected marginal willingness to substitute between today's and future's consumption does not generally jeopardize cost-benefit-analysis.
The Income-Temperature Relationship in a Cross-Section of Countries and its Implications for Predicting the Effects of Global Warming
December 2, 2008 (2-3:30 pm)
John Horowitz (University of Maryland)
Abstract: Hotter countries are poorer on average. This paper attempts to separate the historical and contemporaneous components of this income-temperature relationship. Following ideas by Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson, the authors use colonial mortality data to account for the historical role of temperature, since colonial mortality was highly correlated with countries’ average temperatures. The authors argue that the remaining income-temperature gradient, after colonial mortality is accounted for, is most likely contemporaneous.
This contemporaneous temperature effect can be used to estimate the cost of global warming. The authors predict that a 2 degree Fahrenheit temperature increase across all countries will cause a decrease of roughly 4 percent in world GDP. This prediction is robust across samples, functional forms, and two methods for separating historical effects.
Analysis of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Tax Proposals
November 13, 2008, 1 to 2:30pm
Gilbert Metcalf (Tufts University)
Abstract: The U.S. Congress is considering a set of bills designed to limit the nation's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Several of these proposals call for a cap-and-trade system; others propose an emissions tax. This paper complements the analysis by Paltsev et al. (2007) of cap-and-trade bills and applies the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model to carry out an analysis of the tax proposals. Several lessons emerge from this analysis. First, a low starting tax rate combined with a low rate of growth in the tax rate will not reduce emissions significantly. Second, the costs of GHG reductions are reduced with the inclusion of non-CO2 gases in the carbon tax scheme. The costs of the Larson plan, for example, fall by 20% with inclusion of the other GHGs. Third, welfare costs of the policies can be affected by the rate of growth of the tax, even after controlling for cumulative emissions. Fourth, a carbon tax — like any form of carbon pricing — is regressive. However, general equilibrium considerations suggest that the short-run measured regressivity may be overstated. A portion of the carbon tax is passed back to workers, owners of equity, and resource owners. To the extent that relatively wealthy resource and equity owners bear some fraction of the tax burden, the regressivity will be reduced. Additionally, the regressivity can be offset with a carefully designed rebate of some or all of the revenue. Finally, the carbon tax bills that have been proposed or submitted are for the most part comparable to many of the carbon cap-and-trade proposals that have been suggested. Thus the choice between a carbon tax and cap-and-trade system can be made on the basis of considerations other than their effectiveness at reducing emissions over some control period. Either approach (or some hybrid of the two approaches) can be equally effective at reducing GHG emissions in the United States.
Cap-and-Trade Allowance Allocation Issues
September 23, 2008 (1-2:30 pm)
Dallas Burtraw (Resources for the Future)
Abstract: Policies to cap emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the U.S. economy could pose significant costs on the electricity sector, which contributes roughly 40 percent of total CO2 emissions in the U.S. The electricity sector is especially important because it is where the lion’s share of emission reductions is expected to occur in the early decades of a program. These costs fall unevenly on firms and households. Using a detailed simulation model we evaluate alternative ways that emission allowances can be allocated. Most previous programs have allocated the major portion of allowances for free to incumbent emitters. In the electricity sector this approach would lead to changes in electricity price that vary by region primarily based on whether prices are market-based or determined by cost-of-service regulation. Moreover, the value of the allocation far exceeds the change in market value for the affected firms. Allocation to customers, which could be achieved by allocation to local distribution companies (retail utilities) would recover symmetry in the effect of free allocation and lead to significantly lower overall electricity prices. Unfortunately, this form of compensation provides an implicit subsidy to electricity consumption, which will increase the overall cost of climate policy. The presenter demonstrates the impacts at the household level across regions and income groups under these approaches, and compare these with several other approaches to allocation with the goal of cost-effective compensation for parties most severely affected by climate policy.
This presentation draws on three papers:
- Burtraw, D. and Palmer, K. 2008. “Compensation Rules for Climate Policy in the Electricity Sector,” 2008. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 27 (4):819-847.
- Paul, A., Burtraw D. and Palmer K. 2008. “Free Allocation to Electricity Consumers Under a US CO2 Emissions Cap,"
RFF Discussion Paper 08-25 (July).
- Burtraw, D., Sweeney R. and Walls M. 2008. “The Incidence of U.S. Climate Policy: Where You Stand Depends on Where You Sit,” RFF Discussion Paper 08-28 (August).
The Impact of Carbon Price Policies on U.S. Industry Output and Employment
July 10, 2008 (10:30 am)
Mun S. Ho, Richard Morgenstern, Jhih-Shyang Shih (Resources for the Future)
Abstract: While there are many different proposals to control carbon emissions in the U.S. they all have very different impacts on the various industries. Furthermore, the effect on industry output and employment may change over time as the economy adjusts to the carbon policy. Firms may substitute capital for energy, and consumers may substitute towards less carbon-intensive goods or imports. The length of time for these substitutions to take place vary and the long run impact may well be very different from the short run. This paper aims to inform the Congressional debates about the impact of carbon policies at the detailed industry level. Some policy proposals include an off-setting tax on imports, and we consider its impact. There are also proposals to compensate industries with free allowances under a cap-and-trade system and we estimate the level of such compensation for each industry.
Where Does Energy R&D Come From? A First Look at Crowding Out from Environmentally-Friendly R&D
June 17, 2008 (2 pm)
David C. Popp (Syracuse University) and Richard Newell (Duke University)
Abstract: Recent efforts to endogenize technological change in climate policy models demonstrate the importance of accounting for the opportunity cost of climate R&D investments. Because the social returns to R&D investments are typically higher than the social returns to other types of investment, any new climate mitigation R&D that comes at the expense of other R&D investment may dampen the overall gains from induced technological change. Unfortunately, there has been little empirical work to guide modelers as to the potential magnitude of such crowding out effects. This presentation is a first attempt to address this question. In it, the authors consider the private opportunity costs of climate R&D, asking whether an increase in climate R&D represents new R&D spending, or whether some (or all) of the additional climate R&D comes at the expense of other R&D.
Incorporating Price Effects into Lifecycle Analysis
March 5, 2008 (1 pm)
Mark Delucchi (Institute of Transportation Studies, U.C. Davis)
Abstract: Professor Delucchi's talk argued that no existing models of lifecycle carbon dioxide-equivalent greenhouse-gas (LC-CO2E-GHG) emissions from transportation fuels account for the interaction of policy, the production of new fuels, prices, production and consumption, and finally GHG emissions. In the real world, the production of biomass and biofuels and the substitution of biofuels for petroleum will affect the prices of a wide range of commodities, from gasoline and coal to fertilizer and steel. A change in the price of a commodity will affect the production and consumption of that commodity, of course, but also will affect the price and hence production and consumption of substitutes for and complements of the commodity, products derived from the commodity, and inputs used to make the commodity. So, for example, an increase in use of biofuels in the U. S. can lead to an increase in the use of home heating oil, via the effect of biofuel substitution for gasoline on oil prices. The increase in heating oil will be partly a substitution of oil for other sources of heat, and partly a net increase in heating. Both of these affect GHG emissions and climate change. A general equilibrium model of the world economy, including government sectors, is needed to trace out all of the relevant economic effects of a particular biofuel policy or assumed market outcome.
There are at least four different ways to combine life-cycle analysis (LCA) and general-equilibrium analysis: build a combined model from scratch; connect an existing LCA and an existing general equilibrium model in a meta-modeling framework; add technological detail, input-output linkages, and emission factors to an equilibrium model; or add price-production-GHG relationships to an LCA model. The focus of this talk will mainly be on the last alternative.
Working Paper related to seminar:
Delucchi, Mark A. (2005)
Incorporating the Effect of Price Changes on CO2-Equivalent Emissions From Alternative-Fuel Lifecycles: Scoping the Issues. (PDF, 647 kb) ITS-Davis.October 2005. Publication No. UCD-ITS-RR-05-19.
Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures
February 12, 2008 (1 pm)
Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia University)
Abstract: Prof. Schlenker summarized a paper written with Anthony Fisher, Michael Hanemann, and Michael Roberts. The paper pairs a panel of yearly crop yields in the United States with a fine-scale weather data set that incorporates the whole distribution of temperatures between the minimum and maximum within each day and across all days in the growing season. Yields increase in temperature until about 29°C for corn, 30°C for soybeans, and 32°C for cotton, but temperatures above these thresholds become very harmful. The slope of the decline above the optimum is significantly steeper than the incline below it. This has strong implications for global warming which is predicted to increase the frequency of temperatures above the critical threshold that are harmful for yields. Area-weighted average yields given current growing regions are predicted to decrease by 31-43% under the slowest warming scenario and 67-79% under the most rapid warming scenario by the end of the century. There is limited potential for adaptation within a crop species as the same nonlinear and asymmetric relationship is found if we look only at the time series or cross-section, and the latter should pick up how farmers adapt to warmer climates.
A cross-sectional analysis of farmland values that accounts for an even wider set of adaptation possibilities gives comparable, robust impacts. Mean impacts range from a 27 decrease under the slow warming scenario to a 69 decrease under the fast warming scenario by the end of the century. The increased frequency of very hot temperatures is again responsible for the largest share of the predicted impacts.
Intergeneratonal Discounting
January 22, 2008
Billy Pizer (Resources for the Future)
Abstract: Dr. Pizer discussed the challenges of discounting benefits and costs of policies that occur over multiple generations. He is a recognized expert in the economics of energy and climate change. His remarks on intergenerational discounting focused on his 2003 analysis with Richard Newell of incorporating uncertainty about discount rates on estimates of the benefits of reducing greenhouse gases. This article, the abstract of which is provided below, was awarded the Petry Research Prize for the economics of Climate Change by the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
Article related to January 22 seminar:
Discounting the Distant Future: How Much Do Uncertain Rates Increase Valuations?
Richard G. Newell and William A. Pizer
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Vol. 46, No. 1 (July, 2003), pp. 52-71.
Paper abstract:
The authors demonstrate that when the future path of the discount rate is uncertain and highly correlated, the distant future should be discounted at significantly lower rates than suggested by the current rate. They then use two centuries of US interest rate data to quantify this effect. Using both random walk and mean-reverting models, we compute the ‘‘certainty-equivalent rate’’ that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of discount in the future. Under the random walk model they find that the certainty-equivalent rate falls continuously from 4% to 2% after 100 years, 1% after 200 years, and 0.5% after 300 years. At horizons of 400 years, the discounted value increases by a factor of over 40,000 relative to conventional discounting. Applied to climate change mitigation, they find that incorporating discount rate uncertainty almost doubles the expected present value of mitigation benefits.
Climate Science
Climate Science Seminar: When Uncertainty is a Sure Thing: Risk Assessment for Climate Change
Date TBD
Phil DeCola (US Office of Science and Technology Policy)
Abstract:
Scientific Uncertainty and the Risks of Climate Change
May 7, 2009 (10:00 - 11:30 a.m.)
Jay Gulledge (Pew Center on Global Climate Change)
Abstract: There are basic mechansisms and consequences of human-induced climate
change that are known with high confidence. Other aspects are either
fundamentally uncertain, such as the climate sensitivity, or will remain
uncertain for many years, such as the timing and magnitude of change in
a particular location. Policy decisions must therefore be taken under
uncertainty and these decisions must take into account the risks of
climate change, which include potential surprises with severe
consequences for society. For more information, see a related book chapter that is available at:
http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/Gulledge-Risks-Uncertainty-Aspen08.pdf
Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP) Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative
March 25, 2009 (2:00 to 3:30pm)
Josh Foster (CCAP)
Abstract: The CCAP Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative is building resiliency to climate change impacts through community action. Climate change causes disruptions to human, natural and built systems. It disproportionately impacts poor and vulnerable populations that have limited resources to adapt. built systems, including water infrastructure, buildings and transportation systems, are vulnerable to more frequent extreme weather events. Local governments are the "first responders" to social, environmental and economic disruptions resulting from natural disasters and must anticipate, prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change while minimizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In partnership with government leaders from several large counties and cities, CCAP launched the Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative to: (1) Serve as a resource for local governments as they face important infrastructure and land-use decisions that affect local adaptation efforts; and (2) Empower local communities to develop and implement climate resilient strategies. The program goals and objectives for the next two to three years are to: (1) Operationalize key steps of the adaptation process with the end goal of implementing one or more specific policies and/or programs that incorporate resiliency strategies; (2) Formulate recommendations that help advance the development of national adaptation policy and/or programs that support local resiliency efforts; and (3) Disseminate findings on partners' actions and successes to inform and motivate other local communities in the U.S. and worldwide.
Josh Foster manages the Center for Clean Air Policy's (CCAP) Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative, designed to equip U.S. partner cities and counties to make effective policy and investment decisions to increase their resiliency to the impacts of climate change. He has 13 years of experience working on climate adaptation at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Science Program Office as a manager for climate research applications and services.
Climate Change and Its Causes: A Discussion about Some Key Issues
February 26, 2009
Nicola Scafetta (Duke University)
Abstract: A comparison of past and recent studies suggests that the problem of climate change is complex, as it is evident. Several key issues remain open and their solution may drastically change our understanding of the phenomenon. The crucial issue is: how is it possible to address a problem such a climate change where several crucial physical ingredients are still severely uncertain? In particular, some of the key issues he will address are: a) Did the total solar activity remain constant (as the IPCC and PMOD claim) or increase (as ACRIM claims) since 1980? b) Was the preindustrial temperature almost constant (The Hockey Stick graph) or did it experience a large change? c) What is the contribution of the GHG forcing on climate change, was it overestimated in some important past publications and might this have contributed to shape and bias the following debate? It is evident that solving the above issues in one way or in another is crucial for correctly interpreting climate change. He will propose a solution based on minimal physical assumptions that appear to have been confirmed by a large scientific empirical and theoretical literature. This solution suggests that a significant portion of climate change is natural and linked to changes of solar activity. He will also address the puzzling possibility that climate change might be partially driven by an additional natural forcing different from the radiative one that has not been identified yet. Finally, he will use these findings to attempt a climate prediction about the 21st century and discuss the possibility of an imminent global cooling.
Dr. Scafetta is a research scientist in the Department of Physics at Duke. He has about 40 papers in peer reviewed journals and two books in preparation.
Natural and Anthropogenic Influences on Earth’s Surface Temperature
January 28, 2009 (10:00 to 11:30 am)
Judith Lean (U.S. Naval Research Laboratory)
Abstract: There are many sources of climate variability, including anthropogenic gases, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), volcanic aerosols and solar activity. Deciphering their concurrent impacts on Earth’s surface temperature is difficult because the solar activity cycle and volcanic cooling project onto each other, and both project onto ENSO. Longer-term solar changes may also project onto anthropogenic influences in the past century. A multivariate analysis is one approach for quantifying the natural and anthropogenic components of the surface temperature record simultaneously. Such an analysis, using the best available estimates of each together with the observed temperature, enables comparisons of the geographical distributions of surface temperature responses to the individual influences consistent with their global impacts from 1889 to 2006. The combined natural and anthropogenic influences (at appropriate lags) capture 76% of the variance in the monthly global surface temperature record, suggesting that much of the variability arises from processes that can be identified and their impact on the global surface temperature quantified by direct linear association with the observations. The response to solar forcing is quite different from that reported in several papers published recently: solar forcing produces a detectable 11-year cycle of amplitude 0.1K but contributed negligible long-term warming in the past 25 years and 10% of the warming in the past 100 years, not 69% as claimed elsewhere. Zonally averaged responses to both natural and anthropogenic forcings do not increase rapidly from mid to high latitudes, and therefore differ distinctly from those indicated by the IPCC, whose conclusions depended on model simulations. A recent paper co-authored by Dr. Lean on this subject can be found at Judith L. Lean and David H. Rind, "How Natural and Anthropogenic Influences Alter Global and Regional Surface Temperatures: 1889 to 2006, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L18701, September 16, 2008. Dr. Lean is a Senior Scientist for Sun-Earth System Research in the Space Science Division of NRL. She is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the author or co-author of over 100 papers in professional journals.
Global Warming: What Is It All About?
December 9, 2008 (1:30 to 3:00 pm)
Richard Lindzen (MIT)
Abstract: This is the first of three seminars on the science of global warming from widely different viewpoints. While global warming is frequently presented as a single phenomenon that one either believes in or denies, the real situation is, unsurprisingly, much more complex in the presenter's view. There are, in fact, certain aspects of the issue on which a substantial measure of agreement exists: namely, that global mean temperature has increased a few tenths of a degree since the 19th Century, and that increases in atmospheric CO2 have contributed some part of this warming. He examines some approaches to determining exactly how much of observed warming is actually due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, and how explicit feedbacks are involved in these results. However, the connection of this warming to catastrophic projections is extremely tenuous in his view. Moreover, proposed mitigation policies have little relevance to warming regardless of the level of warming expected. Understanding these ‘disconnects’ not only helps one to assess the overall situation rationally, but also permits one to see how the issue is being improperly exploited in Dr. Lindzen's view.
Dr. Lindzen is the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at MIT. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and has authored or co-authored over 200 professional journal articles.
Human Health Impacts of the and Public Health Responses to Climate Change
November 18, 2008, 2 to 3:30 pm
Kristie L. Ebi (independent consultant with ESS, LLC)
Abstract: Climate change is projected to have far-reaching effects on human health and well-being. Heatwaves and other extreme weather events (e.g., floods, droughts, and windstorms) directly affect millions of people and cause billions of dollars of damage annually. There is a growing consensus that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will likely increase over coming decades as a consequence of climate change, suggesting that the associated health impacts also could increase. Indirectly, climate can affect health through affecting the number of people at risk of malnutrition, as well as through alterations in the geographic range and intensity of transmission of vectorborne, zoonotic, and food- and waterborne diseases, and changes in the prevalence of diseases associated with air pollutants and aeroallergens. Climate change has begun to alter natural systems, increasing the incidence and geographic range of some vectorborne and zoonotic diseases. Additional climate change is projected to significantly increase the number of people at risk of major causes of ill health, particularly malnutrition, diarrheal diseases, malaria, and other vectorborne diseases. Climate also can impact population health through climate-induced economic dislocation and environmental decline.
Public health has experience in coping with climate-sensitive health outcomes; the present state of public health reflects (among many other factors) the success or otherwise of the policies and measures designed to reduce climate-related risks. Climate change will make more difficult the control of a wide range of climate-sensitive health outcomes. Therefore, policies need to explicitly consider these risks in order to maintain current levels of control. In most cases, the primary response will be to enhance current health risk management activities. Although there are uncertainties about future climate change, failure to invest in adaptation may leave communities and nations poorly prepared, thus increasing the probability of severe adverse consequences. Equally, mitigation strategies, policies, and measures are needed to rapidly reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, to improve health today and to prevent health impacts in future decades. Policy makers need to understand the potential impacts of climate change, the effectiveness of current adaptation and mitigation policies, and the range of choices available for enhancement of current or development of new policies and measures.
Dr. Kristie L. Ebi is an independent consultant (ESS, LLC) who has conducted research on the impacts of and adaptation to climate change for more than a decade. She has edited three books on climate change and health, and has more than 75 publications.
Global Sea Level Rise
October 16, 2008
Karl Wunsch (MIT)
Abstract: Like many aspects of climate change, the problem of determining, describing, and understanding shifts in "sea level" proves to be far more complicated and interesting than summary sound bites suggest. Something is now known of the spatial patterns of sea level change and they are very complex, showing major regions of falling sea surface over large areas. Although the best estimates of the global average all show a positive rate of rise, partitioning the rise between heating/cooling and the addition/subtraction of fresh water lies at the very edge of modern oceanographic observational and modeling techniques. The eventual societal costs of sea level rise, whether accelerated or stable at present estimated rates, are huge and to a large extent appear inexorable.
The Shape of Things to Come: Why is Climate Sensitivity So Unpredictable (and Who Cares Anyway)?
April 15, 2008 (2:30 pm)
Gerard Roe and Marcia Baker (University of Washington)
Abstract: Underlying all the benefit estimates of global climate change control are the climate's sensitivity to GHG increases; this presentation explored what is currently known about this critical factor.
What kind of information from the climate science community is the most useful for policy makers, and which uncertainties matter most? Constraining climate sensitivity - the long-term increase in global mean temperature expected from the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide - has been one of the main benchmark goals of climate science. I will review the various disagreements over what future progress might be anticipated, as well as the debate about the extent to which reducing climate sensitivity even matters for any practical decisions on climate policy.
Uncertainties in projections of future climate change have not lessened substantially in past decades. Both models and observations yield broad probability distributions for climate sensitivity, with small but finite probabilities of very large increases. We show that the shape of these probability distributions is an inevitable and general consequence of the nature of the climate system. Further, we show that the breadth of the distribution and, in particular, the probability of large temperature increases are relatively insensitive to decreases in uncertainties associated with the underlying climate processes.
Environmental Economics
Adapting to New Information when Driving Environmental Innovation: Lessons from California Vehicle Policies
November 5, 2009, 9:30 to 11:00 am
Margaret Taylor (Goldman School of Public Policy; University of California,at Berkeley)
Abstract: Locking emissions targets into a long-term regulatory program, such as a cap-and-trade program (CTP) for carbon mitigation, poses certain tradeoffs to policy-makers interested in promoting the invention and adoption of new environmental (or "clean") technologies. On the one hand, long-term targets provide a degree of certainty that investments in clean technologies today will pay off at some point in the future, regardless of the value of emissions allowances in the short term. On the other hand, a future could be imagined in which new information could significantly shift the calculus of the benefits and costs of the original targets and the directions in environmental innovation which these targets had inspired. A variety of studies have highlighted issues regarding the accuracy and credibility of technology projections in the context of “technology-forcing regulation,” given profit motivations and information asymmetry between technology developers and the public sector. But the implications for innovation of periodic government actions that adapt to technological realities and potentials over a long time period have been unexplored, in part because of the dearth of program examples. The most significant of the few existing examples is probably the long-running California Low-Emission Vehicle (LEV) program and its subordinate Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) program. This paper explores the inventive activity and innovative outcomes that occurred in conjunction with the LEV/ZEV program and the potential implications of the results for adaptive technology-forcing environmental policy. Specifically, the paper considers cost, performance, and patenting data for four relevant vehicle technologies – automotive emissions controls (AEC), battery-electric vehicles (BEV), hybrid-electric vehicles (HEV), and polymer-electrolyte fuel-cell vehicles (FCV).
The VSL for Children and Adults: Evidence from Conjoint Choice Experiments in Milan, Italy, and in the Czech Republic
October 1, 2009, 10:30 am
Anna Alberini (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland)
Abstract: The speaker will present the results of conjoint choice experiments designed to estimate child and adult VSL in contexts appropriate for environmental policy analyses. Our survey was self-administered by parents at two centralized facilities in Milan, Italy, and in the major cities and a handful of smaller towns in the Czech Republic.
In Italy, Child VSL is €4.6 million, and adult VSL is €4.0. These figures are not statistically different from one another. The VSL does vary systematically with the cause of death. It is higher when the cause of death is cancer than for respiratory illnesses and road-traffic accidents, with cancer premia of 30% and 53%, respectively. The cancer premium is especially pronounced for adults. The responses to the choice questions are internally valid, and show that the VSL depends on cause of death, whether the risk reduction is private or delivered by a public program, dread, perceived exposure, and sensitivity to the specified cause of death.
Agricultural Law and Livestock Operations: Implications of the Law for Environmental Protection
August 31, 2009, 9:30 to 10:30 am
Janie Simms Hipp (U.S. Department of Agriculture)
Abstract: Janie Hipp, formerly with the National Center for Agricultural Law at the University of Arkansas and now with the USDA Risk Management Agency, will talk about how recent legal developments pertaining to livestock industry and its industrial structure may affect EPA efforts to reduce the environmental impact of the livestock industry, especially confined animal feeding operations (CAFOS).
The Definition and Choice of Environmental Commodities for Non-market Valuation
August 26, 2009, 1:30 pm
Jim Boyd & Alan Krupnick, (Resources for the Future)
Abstract: Economic analyses of nature must somehow define the “environmental commodities” to which values are attached. This paper articulates a set of principles to guide the choice and interpretation of non-market commodities. The presenters will describe how complex natural systems can be decomposed consistent with what can be called “ecological production theory.” Ecological production theory – like conventional production theory – distinguishes between biophysical inputs, process, and outputs. They will argue that a systems approach to the decomposition and presentation of natural commodities can inform and possibly improve the validity of non-market environmental valuation studies. They will raise concerns about the interpretation, usefulness, and accuracy of benefit estimates derived without reference to ecological production theory. They also will discuss ongoing work with EPA's Office of Research and Development relating to the measurement of ecological endpoints and policy-relevant ecological production functions, and ways in which their hypotheses can be tested.
Benefit Transfer from Multiple Contingent Experiments: A Flexible Two-Step Model Combining Individual Choice Data with Community Characteristics
August 18, 2009, 1:00 to 2:30 pm
Klaus Moeltner (University of Nevada, Reno)
Abstract: This study proposes a new approach to utilize information from existing choice experiments to predict policy outcomes for a transfer setting. Recognizing the difficulties from pooling raw data from experiments with different designs and sub-populations we first re-estimate all underlying Random Utility Models individually, and then combine them in a second stage process to form a weighted mixture density for the generation of policy-relevant welfare estimates. Using data from recent choice experiments on farmland preservation we illustrate that our strategy is more robust to transfer inaccuracies than single-site approaches. The specification of "intelligent" mixture weights will be a fruitful ground for future research in the area of Benefit Transfer.
The Pure Characteristics Approach to Travel Cost Models and Implementation of Benefit Transfers
May 14, 2009, 10:00 to 11:30 am
Christopher Parmeter (Virginia Tech)
Abstract: Standard travel cost models rely on a priori assumptions about the distribution of preferences. The resulting estimates reflect uncertainty relating to unobserved characteristics and unobserved preferences on observed characteristics. Currently, few methods have challenged the distributional assumptions applied in empirical settings. This paper argues that the pure characteristics approach, applied to travel cost models provides bounds on benefit estimates that reflect uncertainty on unobserved preferences on unobserved characteristics. Thus, this method is a semiparametric alternative to traditional travel cost models. The ability to relax distributional assumptions on both unobserved characteristics and preferences may provide bounds that are tighter than traditional confidence intervals, improving the quality of policy analysis.
The authors extend the existing pure characteristics methodology to the case where different people face different prices (travel costs). The new estimator uses the additional information in the variation in prices to relax the need for independence between observed and unobserved characteristics of the object of choice. The variation in prices acts as a type of instrument. It provides a new way to deal with endogeneity in recreation demand applications that is less data intensive than the combined stated / revealed preference approach proposed by von Haefen and Phaneuf (JEEM, forthcoming). Additionally, by identifying bounds on welfare measures, rather than point estimates, the PCM provides a way to explicitly address uncertainty when conducting benefit transfers—one of EPA’s guidelines. Thus, this work fills in two gaps in the literature. First, it provides a theoretically sound approach to estimating travel cost models without the use of distributional assumptions. Second, it accounts for preference uncertainty in benefit transfers, which have hindered past methodologies.
Convergent Validity of Revealed and Stated Recreation Behavior with Quality Change: A Comparison of Multiple and Single Site Demands
November 20, 2008 (2:00 to 3:30 pm)
John Whitehead (Appalachian State University)
Abstract: The speaker and his co-authors consider the convergent validity of several demand models using beach recreation data. Two models employ multiple site data, the linked site-selection and trip frequency demand model and the Kuhn-Tucker demand system model. They exploit the effect of the existing variation in beach width on trip choices to analyze a 100 foot increase in beach width. They compare these models to a single site model where we jointly estimate revealed and stated preference data focusing on a hypothetical scenario that directly considers a 100 foot increase in beach width. In each case they develop estimates of the increased number of beach trips with an increase in beach width and the value of beach width. The trip estimates from each of the three models are similar and convergent valid. The convergent validity statistical test on willingness to pay suggests that the estimates converge between these models. However, the difference in magnitude is large.
The paper on which this presentation is based can be found here.
Decentralization and Water Pollution Spillovers: Evidence from the Re-drawing of County Boundaries in Brazil
October 23, 2008
Mushfiq Mobarak (Yale University, School of Management)
Abstract: The presenter will examine the effect of political decentralization on pollution spillovers across jurisdictional boundaries. Upstream water use has spillover effects on downstream jurisdictions, and greater decentralization (i.e. a larger number of political jurisdictions managing the same river) may exacerbate these spillovers, as upstream communities have fewer incentives to restrain their members from polluting the river at the border. The presenter will use GIS to combine a panel dataset of 9,000 water quality measures collected at 321 monitoring stations across Brazil with maps of the evolving boundaries of the 5500 Brazilian counties to study (a) whether water quality degrades across jurisdictional boundaries due to increases in pollution close a river’s exit point out of a jurisdiction, and (b) what the net effect of a decentralization initiative on water quality is, once the opposing impacts of inter-jurisdictional pollution spillovers and increased local government budgets for cleaning up the water are taken into account. The researchers took advantage of the fact that Brazil changes county boundaries at every election cycle, so that the same river segment may cross different numbers of counties in different years. The presenter finds evidence of strategic enforcement of water pollution regulations; there is a significant increase in pollution close to the river’s exit point from the upstream county, and conversely a significant decrease in pollution when the measure is taken farther downstream from the point of entrance. Pollution increases by 2.3% for every kilometer closer a river gets to the exiting border, but in the stretch within 5 kilometers of the border this increase jumps to 18.6% per kilometer. Thus the greatest polluting activity appears to be very close to the exiting border. The researchers' theoretical model coupled with the empirical results are strongly suggestive that these results are evidence of strategic spillovers rather than spurious correlation between county splits and pollution stemming from changing population density. Even in the presence of such negative externalities, the net effect of decentralization on water quality is essentially zero, since some other beneficial by-products of decentralization (in particular, increased local government budgets) offsets the negative pollution spillover effects.
The paper on which this presentation is based can be found here. (PDF, 456 kb)
Impact of Switching Production to Bioenergy Crops: The Switchgrass Example
November 1, 2007 (2pm)
Scott McDonald (University of Sheffield), Sherman Robinson (University of Sussex) and Karen Thierfelder (U.S. Naval Academy)
Abstract: This paper reports the results from simulations that evaluate the general equilibrium effects of substituting switchgrass, a biomass, for crude oil in USA petroleum production. The new production process is less efficient and USA GDP declines slightly. As switchgrass production expands, USA agriculture contracts and the world price of cereals increases. The world price of crude oil falls as USA import demand declines. The net effect of the price and income changes is a general decline in economic welfare. Moreover, the declines in welfare are proportionately greater for developing countries who produce small quantities of agricultural commodities whose prices increase.